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Product: Book
ISBN-10: 0-375-42404-0
ISBN-13: 9780375424045
Publisher: Pantheon
Country:
Year: May 13, 2008
Size: 16.00 x 23.62 x 2.79cm
Number of pages: 272
Weight: 522gr
Binding: Hardcover
ISBN-10: 0-375-42404-0
ISBN-13: 9780375424045
Publisher: Pantheon
Country:
Year: May 13, 2008
Size: 16.00 x 23.62 x 2.79cm
Number of pages: 272
Weight: 522gr
Binding: Hardcover
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Product Description
In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious cases, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance. The rise and fall of your favorite movie star of the most reviled CEO--in fact, of all our destinies--reflects as much as planning and innate abilities. Even the legendary Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth's single-season home run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky. And it might be shocking to realize that you are twice as likely to be killed in a car accident on your way to buying a lottery ticket than you are to win the lottery. How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars, the highest rating, in one journal and in another it was called the worst wine of the decade? Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of change and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor's office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire. Offering readers not only a tour of randomness, chance, and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man fresh from a night at the bar.
In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious cases, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance. The rise and fall of your favorite movie star of the most reviled CEO--in fact, of all our destinies--reflects as much as planning and innate abilities. Even the legendary Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth's single-season home run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky. And it might be shocking to realize that you are twice as likely to be killed in a car accident on your way to buying a lottery ticket than you are to win the lottery. How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars, the highest rating, in one journal and in another it was called the worst wine of the decade? Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of change and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor's office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire. Offering readers not only a tour of randomness, chance, and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man fresh from a night at the bar.
Amazon.com Review
Amazon Guest Review: Stephen Hawking
Published in 1988, Stephen Hawkings A Brief History of Time became perhaps one of the unlikeliest bestsellers in history: a not-so-dumbed-down exploration of physics and the universe that occupied the London Sunday Times bestseller list for 237 weeks. Later successes include 1995s A Briefer History of Time, The Universe in a Nutshell, and God Created the Integers: The Mathematical Breakthroughs that Changed History. Stephen Hawking is Lucasian Professor of Mathematics at the University of Cambridge.
In The Drunkards Walk Leonard Mlodinow provides readers with a wonderfully readable guide to how the mathematical laws of randomness affect our lives. With insight he shows how the hallmarks of chance are apparent in the course of events all around us. The understanding of randomness has brought about profound changes in the way we view our surroundings, and our universe. I am pleased that Leonard has skillfully explained this important branch of mathematics. --Stephen Hawking
Amazon Guest Review: Stephen Hawking
Published in 1988, Stephen Hawkings A Brief History of Time became perhaps one of the unlikeliest bestsellers in history: a not-so-dumbed-down exploration of physics and the universe that occupied the London Sunday Times bestseller list for 237 weeks. Later successes include 1995s A Briefer History of Time, The Universe in a Nutshell, and God Created the Integers: The Mathematical Breakthroughs that Changed History. Stephen Hawking is Lucasian Professor of Mathematics at the University of Cambridge.
In The Drunkards Walk Leonard Mlodinow provides readers with a wonderfully readable guide to how the mathematical laws of randomness affect our lives. With insight he shows how the hallmarks of chance are apparent in the course of events all around us. The understanding of randomness has brought about profound changes in the way we view our surroundings, and our universe. I am pleased that Leonard has skillfully explained this important branch of mathematics. --Stephen Hawking reviews
A good intro to Statistics 
This book is a few things: most of all, it is a history lesson in statistics and has lots of interesting tidbits and pieces of game theory thrown in. However, it is not a unified or deep look into how we actually behave, besides for citing numbers to support randomness was [probably] involved. Mlodiow brings up determinism and behavioral economics but gives both only a cursory treatment. The book was most valuable to me in pointing out the flaws in many assumptions we make unconsciously about people's successes or failures, and the common mistakes the experts make in basic statistics. In these regards, it was illuminating.
This book is a few things: most of all, it is a history lesson in statistics and has lots of interesting tidbits and pieces of game theory thrown in. However, it is not a unified or deep look into how we actually behave, besides for citing numbers to support randomness was [probably] involved. Mlodiow brings up determinism and behavioral economics but gives both only a cursory treatment. The book was most valuable to me in pointing out the flaws in many assumptions we make unconsciously about people's successes or failures, and the common mistakes the experts make in basic statistics. In these regards, it was illuminating.
No text-to-speech = no sale. 
Punish the Luddite behavior of the publisher. Do not buy this book, you are just enabling the discrimination against blind and reading disabled, and allowing the publisher to treat you like a criminal.
Punish the Luddite behavior of the publisher. Do not buy this book, you are just enabling the discrimination against blind and reading disabled, and allowing the publisher to treat you like a criminal.
»Probability is the very guide of life« 
A DRUNKARD'S WALK is a cursory series of discussions of such everyday topics as gambling, DNA testing, box office gross receipts, and life expectancies. It is written in a breezy, witty style, salted with an entertaining sense of humor. Mlodinow is at his best when talking about how randomness has affected the thinking of certain historical figures (Fermat, Pascal, Laplace), and also how fallacious thinking (and all the resulting harm) arises from our assumptions of the cause & effect linkage. »We should keep in mind that extraordinary events can happen without extraordinary causes« is his core statement that would pretty much sum up the focus of this book. The premise here, if it can be called that, is that events are random, and thus outside of our perceived & wish-fulfilled realities. What it comes down to is Chance vs. Intuition, the latter usually ending up the loser. Mlodinow makes the dry-as-dust subject of probability theory as interesting and insightful as might be possible. But this book is certainly not a primer, as some would have it. He talks about such mathematical concepts as regression to the mean & the law of large numbers and how they relate to everyday probabilities in a understandable way that is accessible for those of us that have almost no mathematical orientation. »Probability is the very guide of life« said Cicero. And Mr. Mlodinow has done a decent job in exploring many of the probabilities that lurk throughout our everyday world. Extracts: A Field Guide for Iconoclasts The Cloud Reckoner Parataxis
A DRUNKARD'S WALK is a cursory series of discussions of such everyday topics as gambling, DNA testing, box office gross receipts, and life expectancies. It is written in a breezy, witty style, salted with an entertaining sense of humor. Mlodinow is at his best when talking about how randomness has affected the thinking of certain historical figures (Fermat, Pascal, Laplace), and also how fallacious thinking (and all the resulting harm) arises from our assumptions of the cause & effect linkage. »We should keep in mind that extraordinary events can happen without extraordinary causes« is his core statement that would pretty much sum up the focus of this book. The premise here, if it can be called that, is that events are random, and thus outside of our perceived & wish-fulfilled realities. What it comes down to is Chance vs. Intuition, the latter usually ending up the loser. Mlodinow makes the dry-as-dust subject of probability theory as interesting and insightful as might be possible. But this book is certainly not a primer, as some would have it. He talks about such mathematical concepts as regression to the mean & the law of large numbers and how they relate to everyday probabilities in a understandable way that is accessible for those of us that have almost no mathematical orientation. »Probability is the very guide of life« said Cicero. And Mr. Mlodinow has done a decent job in exploring many of the probabilities that lurk throughout our everyday world. Extracts: A Field Guide for Iconoclasts The Cloud Reckoner Parataxis
A history of Statistics 
A well written and entertaining history of statistical thought & theory. Ultimately, its the last chapter that I enjoyed the most as the author encourages us to »identify and appreciate the good luck that we have and recognize the random events that contribute to our success«. A great book on many different levels.
A well written and entertaining history of statistical thought & theory. Ultimately, its the last chapter that I enjoyed the most as the author encourages us to »identify and appreciate the good luck that we have and recognize the random events that contribute to our success«. A great book on many different levels.
Great stories for the uninitiated. Great lessons and history too.
I have read quite a bit about this subject and most folks I know could use a little better education about it. I like the experience and the author's approach. I particularly liked the stories about those in history behind the science. That was as the most educational for me.
I have read quite a bit about this subject and most folks I know could use a little better education about it. I like the experience and the author's approach. I particularly liked the stories about those in history behind the science. That was as the most educational for me.
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